There is growing optimism, but an extremely high level of uncertainty. That sums up the general economic outlook in Northern Norway.
The Business Outlook Barometer for autumn 2009 is out, and the economic situation in Northern Norway is marked by growing optimism.
So far, it appears Northern Norway has been less affected by the recession and financial crisis than the rest of the country. There are many signs of positive future outlooks according to the Business Outlook Barometer for Northern Norway for autumn 2009, which was presented on November 16.
The main reason for optimism is that Northern Norway has a business structure that makes this region less exposed during times of recession. Northern Norway was also in an extremely favourable position before the recession with record low unemployment.
“We do not expect any strong growth in the North Norwegian economy, but it looks like we have reached the bottom. However, we expect that unemployment will rise slightly in the future,” says Research Scientist Frank Olsen at Norut Tromsø. He has headed the specialist work on the Business Outlook Barometer.
Norway and the international economy
According to the Business Outlook Barometer, there are signs of a turnaround in the international economy, which can mostly be attributed to large-scale political initiatives to stimulate growth.
However, owing to high national debt, a minority of countries have the ability to implement extremely expansive fiscal policies over longer periods. A high degree of uncertainty is attached to whether the growing optimism we are now seeing is strong enough when many countries scale down their expansive policies.
Norway is in a different situation and has also been hit by the recession and the financial crisis. The growth impulses are stronger in Norway than in the majority of other countries, and Norway was the first country in Europe to increase the key policy rate.
The Business Outlook Barometer
The objective of the Business Outlook Barometer is to provide information and knowledge about and to the business community in Northern Norway.
The Business Outlook Barometer for autumn 2009 is published in Norwegian language only at www.kbnn.no.
Contact person: Research Scientist Frank Olsen, Norut Tromsø