Experts predict new oil peak in 2020

Earlier predictions that the oil will run out in the years ahead have been challenged. A new prognosis predicts that Norway will experience a peak in oil production in 2020.

Norwegians could make a hefty bonus of NOK 800 billion from oil in the years leading up to 2025, Aftenposten reports. The consulting company Rystand Energi calculates the bonus as the difference between the Directorate of Oil’s more pessimistic estimate from 2004, and the new prognosis.

The estimated bonus is also based on an oil price of $100 per barrel, today's exchange rates, and the portion that the government usually collects from the total oil revenue.

Since the production of oil peaked in 2000, it has gone down dramatically. The former prognosis by the oil directorate showed a stark decline until 2020, but that prediction has now been challenged.

Part of the explanation is that more oil has been discovered than expected, and that these new finds will soon go into production.

"We think that the oil fields that start production between 2010 and 2020 will have twice the capacity of the oil fields where production started in the last decade," says Jarand Rystad form the consulting company.

He also points out that various measures aimed to increase the recovery factor of existing fields will help increase production.

 

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